The wisdom of the crowd

Today’s Fairfax-Ipsos poll shows a drop in support for Labour.

Two more polls were released over the weekend. The Colmar Brunton poll showed National up sharply, after falling sharply last time. The Reid Research poll showed National down a couple of points, but still in a healthy position.

Another poll released almost a fortnight ago, the Roy Morgan, showed National down a couple of points.

Here is what we can conclude if we look at these four polls:

  • People don’t like Labour, except for those people who do. This number is both increasing and reducing.
  • A lot of people still like National, except for those people who no longer like National, which is a growing number, although more people like National than before.
  • The power policy announced by Labour and the Greens is a vote winner, except that it isn’t.
  • National has had a boost in support following the Budget, although people are clearly unimpressed with the Budget, and this has affected National.
  • John Key is liked and admired and not trusted and disliked.

Remember, pundits, never look at the long term trend. It’s less fun.

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