An analysis of the 3 News Poll

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Patrick Gower called it a “gamechanger”, but is the latest 3 News Reid Research poll really as extraordinary as he would like us to believe?

Of course it is. One major party is up a bit, one is down a bit, and Winston Peters (gasp! surprise!) holds the balance of power.

But that’s missing the point. This really is a gamechanger, because although the results seem anything but extraordinary, and although one poll in isolation doesn’t really mean a damn thing, it’s the first major TV political poll conducted in this country since Christmas. The first in 2014!

This is unprecedented for 2014. 3 News have scooped the opposition by getting there first. In times to come political scientists who are studying 2014 and ignoring all other years for some strange reason will marvel at this poll, because it will be the very first piece of TV polling data they can look at.

But that’s not all. The 3 News poll shows that we could have a change of government, with Winston as the kingmaker. That is, assuming Parliament passes urgent legislation next week so that the result of the first major TV political poll taken in 2014 determines the make-up of Parliament after the election. It could happen!

3 thoughts on “An analysis of the 3 News Poll

  1. Pingback: The Daily Blog Watch – 2/3 February 2014 | Frankly Speaking...

  2. Pingback: The Daily Blog Watch – 2/3 February 2014 « The Daily Blog

  3. Problem is politics is actually quite boring. Hyperbole is the order of the day. Otherwise you end up reporting like this: Today in parliament a group of middle aged men in suits, with the odd women, proposed some minor changes to the Law, the other group did not think this was great idea so both groups debated the issue for several days before sending the changes to a smaller group to hear from the public and debate the issue further. Tune in tomorrow to hear how the debate continued.

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