Patrick Gower called it a “gamechanger”, but is the latest 3 News Reid Research poll really as extraordinary as he would like us to believe?

Of course it is. One major party is up a bit, one is down a bit, and Winston Peters (gasp! surprise!) holds the balance of power.

But that’s missing the point. This really is a gamechanger, because although the results seem anything but extraordinary, and although one poll in isolation doesn’t really mean a damn thing, it’s the first major TV political poll conducted in this country since Christmas. The first in 2014!

This is unprecedented for 2014. 3 News have scooped the opposition by getting there first. In times to come political scientists who are studying 2014 and ignoring all other years for some strange reason will marvel at this poll, because it will be the very first piece of TV polling data they can look at.

But that’s not all. The 3 News poll shows that we could have a change of government, with Winston as the kingmaker. That is, assuming Parliament passes urgent legislation next week so that the result of the first major TV political poll taken in 2014 determines the make-up of Parliament after the election. It could happen!