I always follow my gut, and my gut tells me that the latest Colmar Brunton poll paints an inaccurate picture.

I’m certain that if an election were held tomorrow, we’d all be saying “what the fuck? On a weekday? What kind of dirty Tory trick is this?”

And then I’d be saying “well, it’s going to be a Labour/Greens victory, because nobody likes John Key, and all those polls are wrong.”

I mean they have to be wrong, don’t they? My gut tells me so.

It’s the same gut that whispered to me last week: “you really ought to eat those jam doughnuts, because you’ll feel much better, and you won’t put on an ounce of weight, even if you stuff yourself full with a box of those delicious treats.”

And you know what? I did feel better after scoffing half a dozen doughnuts. For a while. Then I felt terrible, but that must have been the mince and cheese pie I ate afterwards.

When it comes to politics my gut has never let me down. Yes, I did predict on my blog just before the 2011 general election that Labour would win by scoring 47% of the popular vote. But you can’t blame my gut for that. My blogsite was hacked, obviously.

I’m a seasoned political operator, and I like to gauge the mood of the nation by talking to groups of ordinary voters. My gut feeling from talking to a lot of Labour Party activists in recent weeks is that John Key isn’t all that popular, especially among Labour Party activists. In this year’s election John Key is going to struggle to secure the Labour Party activist vote. There may only be a few thousand of them across the nation, but in a tight election race they could be the difference between winning and losing.

This explains why I get so angry at people like Patrick Gower and Corin Dann when they talk about how badly Labour and the Greens are doing in the polls. They may simply be the messenger, but surely it’s okay to shoot the messenger if it makes me feel a little bit better. My gut tells me that these people are the enemy, because they say things I don’t want to hear.

Forget all about the polls. My gut tells me they’re wrong, so you should ignore them until they show Labour and the Greens in front.

My gut also tells me that it’s time for another box of doughnuts. These are going to make me feel great!